Что будет с рублем, долларом и евро в марте? Валютный прогноз

Что первый месяц весны принесет курсу российской валюты — ослабление или укрепление? АиФ.ru узнал у экспертов.

Какие внутренние и внешние факторы будут поддерживать рубль в марте, а какие, наоборот, могли бы ослабить национальную валюту? Этот вопрос АиФ.ru задал финансовым экспертам.

Март — позитивный для рубля месяц

Ирина Комарова, доцент кафедры экономической теории РЭУ им. Г. В. Плеханова: «Март сулит оптимистичные перспективы для рубля. Позитивная динамика промышленного производства, ускорение роста грузооборота железнодорожного транспорта и авиаперевозок, расширение розничных продаж товаров как текущего, так и долгосрочного потребления, — все это говорит о восстановлении российской экономики. Один из ключевых индикаторов настроений в бизнес-сфере — индекс PMI — достиг многолетнего максимума, что позволяет надеяться на дальнейшее расширение инвестиционных расходов корпоративного сектора. 

Какие бывают рейтинги кредитных агентств. Инфографика

В пользу рубля играет и состояние платежного баланса РФ: рост профицита текущего счета. Наконец, еще одним немаловажным фактором для дальнейшего укрепления российской валюты стало повышение агентством S&P кредитного рейтинга России до инвестиционного уровня.

Теперь — о сдерживающих факторах. Это прежде всего политика Центробанка, предполагающая дальнейшее снижение процентных ставок, после которого курс национальной валюты ослабевает.

Серьезных колебаний от доллара и евро в марте ожидать не стоит. Курс доллара будет колебаться около отметки в 56 рублей.

Курс евро в марте будет очень чувствителен к изменениям экономической и политической конъюнктуры в регионе. Сразу несколько важных событий намечены на март в еврозоне: это выборы в Италии, подведение итогов голосования социал-демократов в Германии, а также возможный пересмотр процентных ставок ЕЦБ. В условиях высокой неопределенности исходов ожидать восходящей динамики от курса евро не приходится. Вместе с тем благоприятные данные по экономической активности в еврозоне не позволят откатиться курсу евро ниже отметки в 68 рублей».

Взлет биткоина и обвал нефти. Шокирующие прогнозы, которые сбылись

Все внимание на США

Станислав Вернер, глава аналитического департамента Dominion: «В марте может сложиться любопытная ситуация: на фоне традиционного для первого квартала сильного платежного баланса и повышения цен на нефть рубль относительно доллара может подешеветь. Ничего драматичного: курс может просто лишиться достижений февраля, подтянувшись к максимумам с начала года: 57,80 руб. И причиной этому будут события на внешних рынках, которые к России прямого отношения не имеют. А именно — самые высокие темпы роста мировой экономики за последние десять лет, которые вынуждают ведущие ЦБ мира постепенно сокращать объем стимулов, введенных в годы кризиса. 

Возглавляет этот процесс американский Федрезерв: в марте он может первый раз в этом году повысить ключевую процентную ставку. На фоне роста процентных ставок капиталы будут стремиться в США, и Россия с ее высокими ценами на нефть будет для иностранных инвесторов уже не так интересна. Разница в процентных ставках из-за снижения Банком России ключевой ставки продолжит таять, что может спровоцировать частичный уход иностранных денег, которые на протяжении последних двух лет помогли рублю существенно укрепиться. 

Ограничат размах этой тенденции высокие цены на нефть, которые в последние дни сигнализируют о готовности вернуться к годовым максимумам. Добыча сланцевой нефти пока окончательно не поглотила весь прирост спроса. 

Относительно евро рубль в марте принципиальным образом не изменится, поскольку доллар будет теснить и единую европейскую валюту. Курс евро/рубль можно ожидать в диапазоне 67,5-70 рублей».

Рост ВВП, нефти и внешней торговли поддержат рубль

Елена Крылова, завкафедрой финансовых и экономических дисциплин Московского гуманитарного университета (МосГУ), д. э. н.: «В этом году рубль с высокой долей вероятности будет стабилизироваться за счет институциональных факторов (выборы) и политики Центробанка. Ожидаемый диапазон по доллару — 56-61 рубль. А март станет наиболее активным периодом данной динамики.

Стандартные факторы укрепления рубля все те же. Во-первых, цены на нефть. Сырье будет дорожать, приток валюты будет расти вместе с нефтяными котировками, тем самым создавая переизбыток, что само собой будет работать на укрепление российской валюты.

Во-вторых, рост объемов внешней торговли. Ее объемы в прошлом году выросли на четверть, экспорт растет быстрее импорта. Опять же появляется избыток валюты, что стимулирует рубль.

В-третьих, рост ВВП на 2%. Объемы национальной экономики потихоньку растут, что также поддерживает российскую валюту».

Ослабить рубль могут только санкции

Георгий Ващенко, начальник управления операций на российском фондовом рынке ИК «Фридом Финанс»: «На валютном рынке ожидаю относительно спокойную динамику. Ориентируюсь преимущественно на диапазон 55,5-57,5 рубля за доллар. Это связано с отскоком цены на нефть, притоком новых средств инвесторов и отсутствием негативных внешних событий. Единственное, что может негативно повлиять на рубль и фондовый рынок, — это новые санкции, в случае если они будут объявлены. Но их влияние на экономику в целом слабое».

Американский Федрезерв укрепит доллар

Роман Блинов, эксперт компании «Международный финансовый центр»: «Если обратить внимание на недавнее выступление главы американского Федрезерва, то можно сделать вывод о периоде укрепления курса доллара. Естественно, это будет влиять и на российскую валюту.

Что такое ФРС?

Огромное количество инвесторов со всего мира ждут, что в марте 2018 года ФРС США в очередной раз пересмотрит уровень базовой учетной ставки. В сложившихся благоприятных экономических условиях ФРС намерена приложить все усилия для того, чтобы избежать перегрева экономики, постепенно увеличивая стоимость кредитования для экономики. Сегодня предполагается, что траектория повышения ставок будет очень плавной, чтобы инфляция в среднесрочной перспективе успела восстановиться до целевого уровня 2% годовых.

Основная нагрузка на рубль может прийтись на 20-21 марта, когда в Штатах будет повышена ставка. Это простимулирует спрос на доллар, увеличит его курс, а рубль, наоборот, ослабнет. 

Тем не менее есть факторы, благодаря которым российская валюта будет укрепляться. Это устойчивые цены на нефть и общий интерес иностранных инвесторов к российским активам».

Под нефтяным давлением

Сергей Козловский, руководитель аналитического отдела Grand Capital: «Рост неопределенности с сохранением баланса на нефтяном рынке увеличивает напряженность, что приводит к коррекции цен на сырье. Первый негативный импульс мы наблюдали в начале февраля, когда нефть скорректировалась более чем на 10%. Если в марте ОПЕК+ не выработает дополнительный пакет мер по регулированию объемов предложения, коррекция нефти продолжится. А это значит, что рубль также окажется под давлением. 

Дополнительным негативным фактором в марте станет ожидаемая интервенция Минфина РФ, направленная на ослабление рубля. Не поддерживает российскую валюту и снижение интереса со стороны инвесторов-кэрри трейдеров ввиду понижения ключевой ставки Банком России. 

Дополнительное давление на рублевые пары окажет ожидаемое укрепление евро и доллара США на валютном рынке из-за положительной статистики из еврозоны и США соответственно.

Ожидаемые курсы к концу марта: 59 рублей за доллар и 70 рублей за евро».

Источник

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